The environment of heightened volatility is showing, week by week, a diminishing impact from both verbal and non-verbal interventions. This marks a significant momentum shift, as June is not only the last month of Q2/2025 but also the crucial period for closing out first-half 2025 performance .
This timeframe is particularly important and decisive for many investment firms, banks, and analysts, as macroeconomic and microeconomic data, both from a statistical and financial perspective, will be evaluated, alongside the performance of key investment tools and indexes.
The only element that appears unchanged throughout this period is the persistent negativity toward President Trump’s actions and intentions. However, this sentiment is currently visible only in various articles circulating across digital and traditional media. I mention this because, from an investment and performance standpoint, the returns across several asset classes do not reflect the same conclusion, and investors have started noticing it in their valuations.
I do not believe the “big event” we are expecting has occurred yet, but markets are gradually shifting perspective, adopting a more positive outlook regarding future developments and upcoming actions, albeit without any major changes for now.
The American economy continues to capture the attention of the investment community and remains a determining force for the future trajectory of global indexes. As we’ve noted in previous articles, this divergence in global market performance will not last much longer, and the convergence in returns already began in May. Opportunities have been, are, and will continue to be abundant and critical, especially for investors who understand that periods of uncertainty are often followed by periods of strong performance and reward.
As we highlighted in our previous article, the positive momentum in shipping and oil has already validated itself, with the Baltic Dry Index moving above 1,600 points and oil trading above $65 (WTI) and above $67 (Brent). This upward trend is expected to continue for these asset classes.
We had also emphasized that the valuations of many companies across sectors had reached attractive levels for entry, already from early May, and indeed, most sectors have shown upward movement of 4%–6% during this period, with only the healthcare sector remaining flat since May.
However, the most important developments lie ahead, as we see two major investment-related events approaching before June 20:
- The FOMC meeting on June 17–18, which will include the decision on interest rate policy and commentary from Jerome Powell. Current forecasts suggest the Fed will not proceed with a rate change, contrary to strong pressure from President Trump calling for a generous rate cut.
- The expiration of stock market index futures, index options, and stock options on June 20, widely known as Triple Witching Day, which typically brings elevated volatility. This year, particular caution is required as June 19 is a U.S. market holiday (Juneteenth), meaning markets will be closed the day prior.
Until those dates, we expect announcements of key global economic indicators, and, naturally, any developments in geopolitical risk may impact oil prices, tariff negotiations (which could spur renewed buying expectations or a stronger dollar), and capital flows into specific sectors or companies with targeted operations.
In our view, this month will lay the groundwork for market direction until September, and it will be critical for the validation of everything we’ve been arguing and anticipating to manifest on the market board.
Many important developments and announcements lie ahead, and we believe sentiment may shift entirely, even for the pessimists and the skeptics. From the beginning of the year, we have consistently written about and informed investors of the broader positive landscape unfolding, one that will likely continue for several years, and how investors can position themselves strategically, with the right balance of risk and reward.
With this mindset, we aim to help our clients and readers capture the market and valuation dynamics in their portfolios in the best possible way.
Feel free to contact us or Maritime Economies for further information about these opportunities.
As an investment advisor, I firmly believe that opportunities always exist, it’s just that sometimes, the right timing and optimal momentum make all the difference and lead to ideal returns.
by Kotsiakis George
