Uncertainty may be the most underrated advantage for the long-term investor. As the G7 leaders meet today and tomorrow in Canada, the developments from this meeting could be decisive for the new big picture in global markets — especially since it is taking place in a context of geopolitical fluidity and intense market volatility. Investors are now called upon to answer a fundamental question: is this risk or opportunity?
Already since Monday morning, there have been announcements – conditions from Europe regarding proposals and terms of agreement with the U.S. on tariffs. As I state in all my articles, I believe that tariff agreements made by President Trump with various countries will be one of the most important catalysts for the further upward movement of the markets, and particularly of Wall Street. Similar announcements and conditions have been expressed by Japan and Canada as well, and this G7 meeting will create the most important opportunity for face-to-face meetings and discussions with President Trump.
As I’ve emphasized in a previous article, this week is particularly crucial due to significant announcements coming from this meeting, the FED’s session, and the comments and responses that will be made public after the interest rate decision — along with Friday’s triple witching. It’s worth highlighting that since the end of last week, following the beginning of the Iran–Israel crisis, there is a rumor about a potential 1% interest rate cut by the Fed in the near future — something we've been insisting on for months. This persistent stance by Powell, maintaining high interest rates and contradicting President Trump’s expectations, cannot last much longer.
The uncertainty surrounding central banks’ monetary policy, especially the moves by the Fed, which begins its two-day meeting tomorrow, the ongoing trade tensions between the West and China, and the instability in energy due to Ukraine and the Middle East, are shaping an environment that may seem “dangerous.” Yet, the greatest returns are often born in such environments.
We’ve said the same in our articles over the past months, when we highlighted the critical $60 level for WTI as an ideal buying opportunity — and that move has already materialized. Of course, the geopolitical crisis played a role in this, but what we consistently emphasize is that every event or development is the reason a move happens — whether upward or downward. The key takeaway in recent months is that the developments we are anticipating point to a significant upward movement, especially in the U.S. market. Just as a war crisis contributed to the rise in oil prices — and it’s worth stressing that this movement may be consolidating at current levels before continuing upward — the broader uncertainty is sustaining the price of gold, which has been on the rise for more than a year. Naturally, the euro’s appreciation has also contributed (we believe this move is now complete, and we may soon see a correction, possibly with large volatility). We see a similar picture in the EUR/USD exchange rate: the 1.1600 level remains a strong resistance, and I believe that USD strength is not far off, with an initial target below 1.1200.
With this mindset, all developments and announcements related to inflation, interest rate cuts, tariff agreements, and the geopolitical chessboard will be the key factors shaping market movements and performance in the second half of the year. That’s why in today’s article I chose to make the core message about the returns hidden within uncertainty. Because uncertainty triggers decisions — economic and political — aimed at restoring confidence. And that is the main fuel for the markets.
We believe that in the coming period, just as in recent months, uncertainty and fear will continue to feed risk appetite. And because we live in an era of speed, fear will quickly pass the baton to euphoria and greed. This is how an investor’s strategy should be formed — not based on trends or events that have already been priced in. As we all know, markets move in anticipation, not when the news becomes reality.
When you seize the opportunity or predict the trend, the returns are significant. And I believe this is the fundamental trait behind the remarkable performance of the shipping sector — because the people in shipping know exactly how great revenues are achieved, especially during times of uncertainty and crisis. At this point, our prediction from weeks ago is also being confirmed: the Baltic Dry Index would move toward its previous high around 2100, and may continue its upward trajectory. As I clearly pointed out — a golden era lies ahead for shipping. The same applies to investing: you position yourself in advance, and when the news comes, you reap the results of your placements. And for that, you need an advisor who has read the signs of the times correctly, and who has positioned you in the most appropriate way with a tailor-made strategy based on your personal risk tolerance and return expectations as an investor.
With this mindset, we strive to help investors and our readers make the most of the big picture — the markets, the opportunities, and what lies ahead in the near future. I will repeat once again: the greatest returns are often born in such environments.
Do not hesitate to contact us or Maritime Economies for more information on these investment opportunities.
As an investment advisor, I firmly believe that opportunities always exist — but sometimes, the right timing and proper momentum make the difference and lead to ideal returns.
by Kotsiakis George
